![]() However, this relationship between direct damage and indirect loss is nonlinear, with high-damage events causing disproportionately many more losses as well. Generally, events that cause more damage will also lead to more losses, ceteris paribus. Indirect losses may also have long time lags, making them difficult to quantify. These indirect economic losses can often spill out beyond the affected area, and indeed even beyond the affected country/region’s borders. For the flood example, they could include microeconomic impacts such as revenue loss for businesses when access routes are inundated by floodwater, meso-economic impacts such as temporary unemployment in the affected area, or even wider-ranging macroscale supply-chain disruptions. Examples of these indirect losses are wide-ranging. These are declines in economic value-added because of the direct economic damage. However, an extreme weather event can also cause indirect economic losses. Using flooding as an example, where the hazard is heavy precipitation, direct economic damage may include destroyed housing and roads, or lost crops. The economic costs associated with extreme weather events can be measured in two ways: First, these include direct economic damage, which occurs during or immediately after the event. ![]() For instance, the 2017 Hurricane Harvey’s climate change-induced economic costs were analyzed by both risk-based 7 and intensity-based 8 approaches. The alternative intensity approach calculates what share of a specific aspect of the risk (e.g., rainfall) was due to climate change. The attribution approach based on FAR is known as the risk-based approach 6. We do not distinguish between these in our work here, given the relative paucity of Bayesian attribution work. Methodologically, these probabilistic methods have been approached from both a frequentist or a Bayesian perspective 5, with possibly important consequences for the results thus obtained. From a probabilistic perspective, a Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR) metric is calculated to describe what portion of the risk of an extreme weather event occurring is the result of climate change. The EEA methodology compares the probability of an event that occurred with the probability or intensity of the same event occurring in a counterfactual world without anthropogenic emissions. This approach was first implemented for the 2003 continental European heatwave 4-an event that led to high mortality, especially in France. ![]() EEA was first conceptualized by Allen 3, who, together with some co-authors, developed a method to analyze the contribution of climate change to the risk of an individual weather event that could be clearly defined and quantified. Using climate modeling tools, EEA quantifies the causal link between anthropogenic climate change and the probability and/or the intensity of specific extreme weather events by focusing on their specific circumstances and characteristics. The detection of anthropogenic changes in the frequency, severity, spatial location, and extent of extreme weather events is consequently important.Įxtreme Event Attribution (EEA) is a methodological approach that examines the degree to which anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions had changed the occurrence of specific extreme weather events that have indeed occurred. The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report 2 notes it is virtually certain that there is a climate change component in the increase in reported disaster damage (at least of some types, with weaker evidence for others). ![]() While a part of this increase is due to increased reporting of disaster damage (especially in lower-income countries/regions or countries/regions that were previously more isolated), and because of increased exposure brought about by population growth and internal migrations to more exposed urban and coastal areas, a part of it is attributable to climate change. Based on the available data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), the World Meteorological Organization 1 reports that there has been a sevenfold increase in the reported disaster losses from extreme weather since the 1970s. Extreme weather events have significant adverse costs for individuals, firms, communities, and regional economies. ![]()
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